Causal market imagination engine

Simulate the market world, not just the price.

Jester transforms point-in-time evidence into competing market worlds, strategic participant reactions, volatility-surface trajectories, and executable long-option outcome fields—then attacks every surviving idea in an independent proof court.

Enter the Observatory Run Jester
Paper only Live blocked No order surface Deterministic replay
World state / synthetic mechanics Mechanics certified
Worlds08
Agents13
LadderL0–L7
24Cognition operators
15Data pipelines
13Intelligence services
10Simulator families
8Market packs
37Proof tests

The thesis

A market is an ecology of facts, beliefs, incentives, and constraints.

A directional forecast is not an option outcome. Jester traces the complete causal chain from a claim entering the evidence plane to belief changes, participant behavior, order-flow pressure, price and implied-volatility paths, liquidity, fills, time decay, and the exact contract an operator would have to hold.

One engine / many competing worlds

The complete research stack

Jester is an ensemble of inspectable systems. Disagreement is measured as epistemic risk; it is never hidden by silently averaging incompatible models.

01

Immutable reality plane

Evidence Vault + Scuttlebutt

Six distinct clocks preserve what happened, what was published, when it became available, and when it changed. A living claim graph tracks provenance, contradiction, incentives, diffusion, mutation, saturation, and price-leading versus price-following behavior.

Content addressedRevision aware Point in timePermissioned
02

Causal scenario lattice

Multiple explanations survive

Observed relationships, candidate causes, evidence-supported interventions, and pure stress assumptions remain separate. Seven social ablations test whether attention is causal, additive, redundant, or descriptive.

03

Market society

Strategic agents react

Thirteen participant classes enter Bayesian information, signaling, congestion, adverse-selection, and repeated-session games with distinct objectives, horizons, information, and constraints.

04

Option outcome field

Direction is only the beginning

Joint price, IV, skew, term, spread, fill, gap, and lifecycle paths expose how often a correct thesis still loses—and whether its edge survives the earliest permitted exit.

05

Adversarial proof court

Promotion must be earned

A Level 0–7 ladder advances from exact replay through synthetic, intervention, agent, adversarial, forward-shadow, and bounded-paper worlds. Higher synthetic levels never replace missing forward evidence.

Oneiric invention foundry

A masterclass arsenal of cognition—bounded by evidence.

Twenty-four typed reasoning operators search beyond ordinary variations: abduction, inversion, structural analogy, regime transplantation, causal surgery, red-team dialectic, compression, missing-variable discovery, and falsification-first invention.

Dream cycles move through REM divergence, NREM consolidation, lucid intervention, and awakening debrief. Every invention exposes a countermechanism, evidence debt, decisive experiment, falsifiers, and lineage. Synthetic novelty receives zero empirical credit.

01 REM divergence 02 NREM consolidation 03 Lucid intervention 04 Awakening debrief
24 typed modes

Failure is preserved as reusable research memory, not erased from a leaderboard.

The Jester Observatory

A read-only 3D cockpit for the entire market ecology

Orbit causal topology, inspect volatility geometry, replay the proof ladder, navigate idea lineages, and audit every source and intelligence contract.

Jester Observatory Dream Foundry showing cognition phases, metrics, and bounded imagination state
Dream mode — oneiric invention, cognitive immunity, and quality-diversity memory
Jester Observatory desktop world view
World mode / desktop
Jester Observatory responsive mobile interface
Responsive operator view

Autonomous learning / permissioned attention

Scientific discovery enters as debt, not truth.

15

Data pipeline contracts

Immutable artifacts, versioned scientific metadata, staged search prominence, filings, macro vintages, rates, positioning, patents, trials, public attention, and licensed market microstructure.

13

Composable intelligences

Temporal fusion, entity resolution, contradiction preservation, attention divergence, revision surprise, causal committees, option criticism, provenance defense, and active-research routing.

0

Automatic scientific credit

Papers become frozen, falsifiable research capsules. They may seed experiments, but cannot activate adapters, mutate source, relax proof gates, or claim replication.

Authority-monotone by construction

Autonomous research without autonomous power.

Allowed

  • Generate and evolve hypotheses
  • Simulate calls, puts, participants, and worlds
  • Learn from resolved forecasts and scientific metadata
  • Reduce its own search budget under pressure
  • Export signed paper-research artifacts

Structurally absent

  • Broker credentials or account access
  • Order construction or submission
  • Automatic source-code mutation
  • Evaluator or proof-gate mutation
  • Self-authorized empirical promotion

Jester is state-of-the-art-inspired and architecturally novel. It becomes state of the art only after frozen forward evaluation and independent replication—not because the architecture is ambitious.

Reproduce the mechanics

Start with the deterministic public world.

The included redistributable fixture proves replay, lineage, rejection, authority, and interface behavior. It does not claim market fidelity or performance.

PowerShell 
git clone https://github.com/ObtuseAI/jester.git
cd jester
uv sync --extra dev

uv run jester run `
  --input fixtures/earnings/synthetic_candidate.json `
  --output artifacts/synthetic-candidate.json

uv run pytest

Jester v0.2

Reality. Beliefs. Strategy. Volatility. Proof.

One replayable research engine. Every important uncertainty left visible.

Explore the repository